SUMMARY (See detail below)
The probability of making the foundational DNA of the simplest organism, by chance, with all ingredients available, (huge assumption) is less than
For comparison's sake, the probability of picking out one specific grain of sand from the sea on the first try is estimated as
Even a billion chemical reactions per second, extended over 100 billion of years, would only provide the following number of tries. According to standard mathematics of probability, if the likelihood of an event happening is less than 1 out of all the tries available it is considered impossible.
DETAILS
DNA is impossible to make by chance -- and it must be made before replication can occur.
A. How many tries would it take to make DNA of the simplest algae, insect or plant? 10 to 60,199,991th power tries. How do we know that?...
1) DNA is composed of 2 strands hooked together. Each strand consists of alternating building blocks, called bases, which connect one after the other. We will call them A, B, C, & D, since in DNA there are a minimum of 4 choices of base types. Standard probability indicates that, on average, getting the desired building block to begin the chain would take 4 tries.
2) The number of tries it would take for two bases to line up in exactly in the order we want can be figured out by multiplying 4 X 4. Ex: If a strand of DNA must start out with AB, to get that combination would take 4 X 4, or 16, tries.
3) Most chemical reactions in the body travel either forward or backward. For these purposes, let's assume that they can only go forward, to give the benefit of doubt to the possibility of making DNA by chance.
4) Let's assume that once we have one chain of the DNA (RNA) it will automatically be converted into a double chain (DNA).
5) In Zubay’s textbook of biochemistry (Zubay, Geoffrey L. Biochemistry 4th Edition, 1998, William C. Brown, Dubuque, Iowa), the number of pairs of bases in the DNA of the simplest plant, insect or algae is 100,000,000. Therefore, one single strand of DNA (RNA) will have 100,000,000 single bases.
6) In order to pair up 100,000,000 bases in a row in a specific way, by chance, it would take 4 to 100,000,000 tries. Converting this to a power of 10 results in: 10 to 60,200,000 tries.
7) Let's make a generous assumption and assume that no organisms are more complex than simple algae, and that there are a billion ways to order the DNA to make an organism. This means that it takes a billion less tries to make the simplest DNA. This still means that it would take 10 to 60,199,991 tries to make DNA of any organism.
B. How many tries are available in all of time in all the universe to make just one organism? 10 to 157th power
1. There are 31,436,000 seconds in a year (3.15 X 10 to 7th power)
2. Assume that the bases can react a billion (10 to 9th power) times a second.
3. Assume 100 billion years (10 to 11th power years).
4. Assume the bases in DNA, instead of being large compounds, are all electrons. The universe is 10 billion light years wide. This has been estimated to hold 10 to 130th power electrons if the electrons were packed together without space.
5. The number of tries or events in all of time in all the universe by these generous assumptions would be 3.15 X 10 to the (7+9+11+130) power = 3.15 X 10 to the 157th power tries
C. Considering all the tries available in all time (Section B, above) divided by the number of tries needed to make one organism (Section A, above), what is the probability over all time in all the universe to make the DNA of a living organism by chance? 1/10 to the 60,199,991th-157th power = 1/10 to the 60,199,834th power
D. Comparison: The probability of choosing one specific insect randomly if all the insects in the whole world were gathered in one place, assuming 100 trillion insects, would be 1/ 10 to the 12th power. Picking one specific grain of sand out of the sea, assuming 100 quadrillion grains of sand, would be 1/ 10 to the 15th power.
Yet we are talking about a probability of 1 in 1060,199,733.
E. According to standard mathematics of probability, if the likelihood of an event happening is less than 1 out of all the tries available it is considered impossible. It is unequivocally impossible to say that by any means or trial and effort, functioning DNA can be made.
F. Note that the same type of statistical calculation can be used to demonstrate that the protein necessary to replicate DNA could not have been produced by chance, etc
1) DNA is composed of 2 strands hooked together. Each strand consists of alternating building blocks, called bases, which connect one after the other. We will call them A, B, C, & D, since in DNA there are a minimum of 4 choices of base types. Standard probability indicates that, on average, getting the desired building block to begin the chain would take 4 tries.
2) The number of tries it would take for two bases to line up in exactly in the order we want can be figured out by multiplying 4 X 4. Ex: If a strand of DNA must start out with AB, to get that combination would take 4 X 4, or 16, tries.
3) Most chemical reactions in the body travel either forward or backward. For these purposes, let's assume that they can only go forward, to give the benefit of doubt to the possibility of making DNA by chance.
4) Let's assume that once we have one chain of the DNA (RNA) it will automatically be converted into a double chain (DNA).
5) In Zubay’s textbook of biochemistry (Zubay, Geoffrey L. Biochemistry 4th Edition, 1998, William C. Brown, Dubuque, Iowa), the number of pairs of bases in the DNA of the simplest plant, insect or algae is 100,000,000. Therefore, one single strand of DNA (RNA) will have 100,000,000 single bases.
6) In order to pair up 100,000,000 bases in a row in a specific way, by chance, it would take 4 to 100,000,000 tries. Converting this to a power of 10 results in: 10 to 60,200,000 tries.
7) Let's make a generous assumption and assume that no organisms are more complex than simple algae, and that there are a billion ways to order the DNA to make an organism. This means that it takes a billion less tries to make the simplest DNA. This still means that it would take 10 to 60,199,991 tries to make DNA of any organism.
B. How many tries are available in all of time in all the universe to make just one organism? 10 to 157th power
1. There are 31,436,000 seconds in a year (3.15 X 10 to 7th power)
2. Assume that the bases can react a billion (10 to 9th power) times a second.
3. Assume 100 billion years (10 to 11th power years).
4. Assume the bases in DNA, instead of being large compounds, are all electrons. The universe is 10 billion light years wide. This has been estimated to hold 10 to 130th power electrons if the electrons were packed together without space.
5. The number of tries or events in all of time in all the universe by these generous assumptions would be 3.15 X 10 to the (7+9+11+130) power = 3.15 X 10 to the 157th power tries
C. Considering all the tries available in all time (Section B, above) divided by the number of tries needed to make one organism (Section A, above), what is the probability over all time in all the universe to make the DNA of a living organism by chance? 1/10 to the 60,199,991th-157th power = 1/10 to the 60,199,834th power
D. Comparison: The probability of choosing one specific insect randomly if all the insects in the whole world were gathered in one place, assuming 100 trillion insects, would be 1/ 10 to the 12th power. Picking one specific grain of sand out of the sea, assuming 100 quadrillion grains of sand, would be 1/ 10 to the 15th power.
Yet we are talking about a probability of 1 in 1060,199,733.
E. According to standard mathematics of probability, if the likelihood of an event happening is less than 1 out of all the tries available it is considered impossible. It is unequivocally impossible to say that by any means or trial and effort, functioning DNA can be made.
F. Note that the same type of statistical calculation can be used to demonstrate that the protein necessary to replicate DNA could not have been produced by chance, etc